5 | Déjà vu

It was August all over again in the September WASDE, with another acreage shock setting the tone as corn plantings climbed 1.4M acres, bringing the June–September increase to an unprecedented 3.5M. 

Roughly 70% of the gains were concentrated in the western Corn Belt and Plains where open weather sped planting, pushing total U.S. corn area to 98.7M acres—the largest since 1936.

4 | A Century of U.S. Row Crop Area

From 1925 to 1975:
.: Corn area -24M ac (-25%)
.: Soybeans area +53M ac (+3450%)

1975 to Present:
.: Corn +20M ac (+25%)
.: Soybeans +27M ac (+50%)

2025:
.: 98.7M - largest area since 1936
.: 81.1M - 6-year low but 11th largest on record

3 | Corn Constraints

Although U.S. corn acres hit an 89-year high in 2025, it doesn't mean those acres are profitable as producers face yet another year of mounting losses in the heart of the Corn Belt.

2025 marks the 3rd consecutive year of losses which look to continue into 2026.

Here is the math of this harsh reality:

Since 2000:

.: Corn yield +35%
.: Price received +110%
.: Cost to plant an acre +230%

That math doesn't work and rural America is feeling the pinch more with each passing day.

2 | Cause and Effect

The past six weeks have been ROUGH across a large swath of the middle and eastern belts, as precipitation totals have been a fraction of normal. This has resulted in rapid drought development and notable deterioration in crop conditions - hurting yield prospects in both corn and soybeans.

1 | One Mounting Problem

We are halfway through September and don't have a single bushel of 2025/26 soybeans on the books with top-customer China - who is a HARVEST buyer.

Can the rest of the world make up for it? No - especially not when new crop commitments to all destinations sit at a 6-year low.

For the full version of this update, visit NoBullAg.Substack.com.

Thanks!